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Dividends: Stocks' Secret Weapon
by David Van Knapp, author of
SENSIBLE STOCK INVESTING:
How to Pick, Value, and Manage Stocks
and
THE TOP 40 DIVIDEND STOCKS FOR 2010:
How to Generate Wealth or Income from Dividend Stocks
December, 2006
During the high-growth 1990’s bull market, interest in stock dividends dropped
to near zero. But with the collapse of the tech bubble, there has been a growing
appreciation for stocks that pay dividends. Nevertheless, dividends are still often
undervalued by many stock investors.
Dividends are stocks’ secret weapon. Studies show that dividends account for
up to half the total return of the stock market over long terms, a surprising fact
considering how little publicity they get. There is no “Dividend Index” or
anything like that which gets reported every day like the Dow and the NASDAQ.
Let’s look at some facts about dividends.
• Not all stocks pay them. The payment of dividends is a discretionary
decision made by each company’s management and Board of Directors.
• But for companies that do pay them, dividend policies tend to persist. A
company with a history of paying dividends will rarely abandon that policy.
Many companies have been paying—and raising—dividends for decades, and
there is no sign that they will stop.
• Dividend-paying companies tend to be larger and older companies, with
well-established cash flows that fund the dividend each year. Thus, they tend to
be companies that are more stable, safer, and less volatile. Many of them are
quite simply reliable cash-generating machines. They share some of that cash
with you by paying it out in dividends.
• At the current maximum Federal tax rate of 15%, dividends are the most
tax-advantaged form of income available. Better than your salary and better
than bond interest (both of which are taxed at your marginal tax rate, which is
usually higher than 15%).
• The best dividend-paying companies often provide significant potential
for price growth on top of their dividends.
But the best thing about dividends is that your yield will often rise over time.
Compare this to the fixed yield that bonds pay. This rising-yield phenomenon,
to me, is the most intriguing aspect of dividend stocks.
How does the yield rise? It happens when the company raises its dividend.
Many dividend-paying companies have a history—an implied policy—of
increasing their dividend regularly. Often this is done in line with their earnings
growth each year. So even a company with modest annual earnings growth of,
say, 10% per year may increase its dividend 10% per year too. (In your job,
how often do you get a salary increase of 10%?)
The increased dividend increases the percentage yield on your original
investment. The math is simple. Say you purchase a $100-per-share stock when
its dividend yield is 3% (which means its dividend is $3 per share). You buy
100 shares for $10,000, and the stock pays you dividends of $300 that first
year. The next year, the company’s earnings increase 10% and the company
follows its usual practice of raising the dividend to match: Up 10% to $3.30 per
share. You get paid $330. Your yield—calculated on your original investment—
has jumped to 3.3%.
Note that it no longer matters what the “current yield” printed in the newspaper
is. That is based on the stock’s current price, whereas your yield is based on
what you invested. If the stock’s price kept pace with its earnings growth (as is
often the case), the current yield will still be depicted as 3%--but that only
applies to new buyers, not to you.
If the 10%-per-year scenario keeps happening, in Year 3 your yield will be a
little over 3.6%, in Year 8 it will have doubled from its original 3% to 6%, and
in Year 16 it will be paying 12% on your original investment. That 12% yield
exceeds the annual long-term return of the stock market itself, and far exceeds
the fixed return available from any investment-quality bond.
Thus we see why dividends are stocks’ secret weapon. They are
underpublicized, yet provide about half the total return of the market with more
safety. And they go up.
Unfortunately, “income” is often reflexively associated just with bonds. Many
investors who are looking for income overlook the income available from
stocks. But as we have just seen, stocks’ income potential often exceeds that of
bonds. The Sensible Stock Investor recognizes this and takes advantage of
dividend stocks in his or her portfolio.
Now, of course, all these good things do not come without a little risk. Whereas
most (certainly not all) bonds are relatively risk-free, stocks always have market
risk attached. But given the large, mature, stable nature of many dividend-
paying companies, that risk is relatively small. Dividend payers tend to be less
volatile than the market as a whole, and certainly less than most high-growth
stocks.
By the way, a high yield is not the only criterion for selecting good dividend
stocks. A well-rounded approach will turn up stocks that not only have decent
dividends to begin with, but also the potential for price appreciation. In other
words, the Sensible Stock Investor keeps his or her eye on total annual return—
with a strong dividend component.
Happily, with the end of the bubble deflation in 2002 and the institution of the
maximum 15% Federal tax rate on dividends, companies themselves—as well as
investors—are rediscovering dividends. More and more companies are paying
them, and many companies which already were paying them have strengthened
their payout rates. Overall, it is a good time to be a dividend investor.
by David Van Knapp, author of
SENSIBLE STOCK INVESTING:
How to Pick, Value, and Manage Stocks
and
THE TOP 40 DIVIDEND STOCKS FOR 2010:
How to Generate Wealth or Income from Dividend Stocks
December, 2006
During the high-growth 1990’s bull market, interest in stock dividends dropped
to near zero. But with the collapse of the tech bubble, there has been a growing
appreciation for stocks that pay dividends. Nevertheless, dividends are still often
undervalued by many stock investors.
Dividends are stocks’ secret weapon. Studies show that dividends account for
up to half the total return of the stock market over long terms, a surprising fact
considering how little publicity they get. There is no “Dividend Index” or
anything like that which gets reported every day like the Dow and the NASDAQ.
Let’s look at some facts about dividends.
• Not all stocks pay them. The payment of dividends is a discretionary
decision made by each company’s management and Board of Directors.
• But for companies that do pay them, dividend policies tend to persist. A
company with a history of paying dividends will rarely abandon that policy.
Many companies have been paying—and raising—dividends for decades, and
there is no sign that they will stop.
• Dividend-paying companies tend to be larger and older companies, with
well-established cash flows that fund the dividend each year. Thus, they tend to
be companies that are more stable, safer, and less volatile. Many of them are
quite simply reliable cash-generating machines. They share some of that cash
with you by paying it out in dividends.
• At the current maximum Federal tax rate of 15%, dividends are the most
tax-advantaged form of income available. Better than your salary and better
than bond interest (both of which are taxed at your marginal tax rate, which is
usually higher than 15%).
• The best dividend-paying companies often provide significant potential
for price growth on top of their dividends.
But the best thing about dividends is that your yield will often rise over time.
Compare this to the fixed yield that bonds pay. This rising-yield phenomenon,
to me, is the most intriguing aspect of dividend stocks.
How does the yield rise? It happens when the company raises its dividend.
Many dividend-paying companies have a history—an implied policy—of
increasing their dividend regularly. Often this is done in line with their earnings
growth each year. So even a company with modest annual earnings growth of,
say, 10% per year may increase its dividend 10% per year too. (In your job,
how often do you get a salary increase of 10%?)
The increased dividend increases the percentage yield on your original
investment. The math is simple. Say you purchase a $100-per-share stock when
its dividend yield is 3% (which means its dividend is $3 per share). You buy
100 shares for $10,000, and the stock pays you dividends of $300 that first
year. The next year, the company’s earnings increase 10% and the company
follows its usual practice of raising the dividend to match: Up 10% to $3.30 per
share. You get paid $330. Your yield—calculated on your original investment—
has jumped to 3.3%.
Note that it no longer matters what the “current yield” printed in the newspaper
is. That is based on the stock’s current price, whereas your yield is based on
what you invested. If the stock’s price kept pace with its earnings growth (as is
often the case), the current yield will still be depicted as 3%--but that only
applies to new buyers, not to you.
If the 10%-per-year scenario keeps happening, in Year 3 your yield will be a
little over 3.6%, in Year 8 it will have doubled from its original 3% to 6%, and
in Year 16 it will be paying 12% on your original investment. That 12% yield
exceeds the annual long-term return of the stock market itself, and far exceeds
the fixed return available from any investment-quality bond.
Thus we see why dividends are stocks’ secret weapon. They are
underpublicized, yet provide about half the total return of the market with more
safety. And they go up.
Unfortunately, “income” is often reflexively associated just with bonds. Many
investors who are looking for income overlook the income available from
stocks. But as we have just seen, stocks’ income potential often exceeds that of
bonds. The Sensible Stock Investor recognizes this and takes advantage of
dividend stocks in his or her portfolio.
Now, of course, all these good things do not come without a little risk. Whereas
most (certainly not all) bonds are relatively risk-free, stocks always have market
risk attached. But given the large, mature, stable nature of many dividend-
paying companies, that risk is relatively small. Dividend payers tend to be less
volatile than the market as a whole, and certainly less than most high-growth
stocks.
By the way, a high yield is not the only criterion for selecting good dividend
stocks. A well-rounded approach will turn up stocks that not only have decent
dividends to begin with, but also the potential for price appreciation. In other
words, the Sensible Stock Investor keeps his or her eye on total annual return—
with a strong dividend component.
Happily, with the end of the bubble deflation in 2002 and the institution of the
maximum 15% Federal tax rate on dividends, companies themselves—as well as
investors—are rediscovering dividends. More and more companies are paying
them, and many companies which already were paying them have strengthened
their payout rates. Overall, it is a good time to be a dividend investor.
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